{"apiVersion":"1.0","modelVersion":"conviction-v2","asOf":"2026-10-21T01:46:57.011Z","methodology":{"formula":"50 + Σ(strength × weight ÷ 2), clamped 0–100","liveFactorWeightCoveragePercent":100,"historicalProxyWeightCoveragePercent":35,"forwardHorizon":"1 day, normalized to the available candle interval","buckets":["0–39","40–60","61–100"]},"validation":[{"days":7,"buckets":[{"bucket":"0–39","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0},{"bucket":"40–60","observations":4,"hitRate":100,"averageMove":0.4610359195826502,"medianMove":0.3527993343123703,"probabilityUp":50,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":51.009997959600085,"confidenceHigh":100},{"bucket":"61–100","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0}]},{"days":30,"buckets":[{"bucket":"0–39","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0},{"bucket":"40–60","observations":27,"hitRate":74.07407407407408,"averageMove":-0.05959266782515904,"medianMove":-0.06689313231311722,"probabilityUp":48.148148148148145,"falseSignalRate":25.925925925925924,"confidenceLow":55.32106959738432,"confidenceHigh":86.82979157713322},{"bucket":"61–100","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0}]},{"days":90,"buckets":[{"bucket":"0–39","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0},{"bucket":"40–60","observations":87,"hitRate":70.11494252873564,"averageMove":0.2936953569012714,"medianMove":0.026367044984709764,"probabilityUp":52.87356321839081,"falseSignalRate":29.88505747126436,"confidenceLow":59.81255653021095,"confidenceHigh":78.71604710512793},{"bucket":"61–100","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0}]}],"source":"Coinbase Exchange daily candles · regional history fallback","sourceIntervalMs":86400000,"limitations":["Historical validation reconstructs trend and momentum only (35 of 100 live weight points).","It is a deterministic structure proxy, not an archived replay of the full seven-factor live model or unified tape.","Forward outcome windows are non-overlapping; lookback windows can still share history, and results exclude fees, slippage and execution delay.","Small samples are shown with Wilson confidence intervals and must not be treated as predictive guarantees."]}